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More Thoughts on the Future of Book Publishing

By the comments I have received to my last post, I think it might be helpful to clarify a few items.

First, despite my attention-grabbing title, I do not actually anticipate the death of traditional book publishing—at least not anytime soon. However, even a 5-10 percent reduction in sales would have a significant negative impact on the publishing industry as we know it today.

Remember, legally downloaded music sales are only 6% of the total music industry, yet the record companies are reeling. But, it’s only going to get worse for those who refuse to embrace the future. Consider the fact that total music sales (physical and downloaded) for the first half of 2005 were $13.2 billion. Legal downloads accounted for $790 million or nearly 6 percent of this total. However, download sales increased by 350% over the prior year. This is the really big news. Do you see where this trend is going?

Yes, traditional books will be available to bibliophiles for the foreseeable future. All I am arguing is that a shift will occur. A big enough slice of the book reading public will opt for digital delivery and that will have a significant, disruptive effect on the entire industry. Trust me, it won’t take much. This is not an industry awash in profits. A 5-10 percent reduction in sales would wreak havoc. It’s already happening with newspapers and magazines. On the other hand, publishing companies that anticipate this shift and prepare accordingly will prosper. But this must happen now, not after the shift occurs. By then, it will be too late.

Second, I don’t think it’s valid to argue that the current technology doesn’t replicate the user-interface of a traditional book. This is obvious—and irrelevant. Technology is changing exponentially. We are not that far away from displays that closely resemble paper and are more readable and easy on the eyes than paper. We can’t try to envision the future by merely extrapolating from the present. We have to think “outside the box.”

Similarly, we can’t afford to make the mistake of assuming that what is familiar to us will be familiar to our children and grandchildren. Yes, I too love books. I have rooms full of them. (That’s one of the reasons I got into the book business!) But my daughters are more comfortable with computers. Just walk into a room full of teenagers and watch what they are doing. You won’t find many reading books (to my dismay). They are more comfortable with computers and other electronic devices. That’s really all they have known.

In addition, the technology does not have to be better than the traditional book. The quality of MP3 files is not as good as the quality of CD tracks. Yet, customers are switching in unprecedented numbers. Why? Because MP3 (or AAC) is good enough. In addition, iPods offer something intangible. It is something that delights consumers and makes them feel hip and powerful. The thought of having 10,000 songs at your fingertips in a device that can fit in your pocket is intoxicating—at least to millions of people. All I am arguing is that a similar device will come along that makes books as readily accessible—and as fun—as an iPod does for music. It will be cool beyond what we can imagine today. It will be simple and elegant, and, like iTunes and iPod, provide a seamless, end-to-end solution that doesn’t exist in today’s eBook world.

Third, Amazon.com has proven that millions of consumers are willing to buy books online without the benefit of browsing through a physical copy in a retail store. No, this doesn’t mean that retail bookstores will go away. But they will have to prepare to compete with a new kind of online store (think iTunes) that will give them a run for their money. Five years ago, no one could have imagined a new startup competitor who could sell more music than either Tower Records or Borders. Yet, it happened. Seemingly, out of the blue. And it is growing beyond what anyone, perhaps even Apple, could have imagined.

Finally, I want to thank everyone who commented on my last post. I may well be wrong in the particulars of my vision about the future. All I am hoping to do is stimulate discussion and get us thinking about a change I believe is inevitable.

Technorati Tags: books, ebooks, future, publishing, reading, technology

The Death of Traditional Book Publishing

In 2000 or so, Microsoft launched Reader, a simple software application designed to enable users to read books on their computers. Most of us in the book publishing world braced for what we thought would be a major shift in our industry. It didn’t happen.

In recent years, it has become fashionable to defend the traditional book. Many have argued that you would be hard-pressed to improve on the user-interface and ergonomics of a book. Jokingly, I have said, “You just can’t beat the battery life of the traditional book!”

While most publishers will admit that reference content is better accessed on the computer, almost all believe that the traditional non-fiction book or novel will never be replaced with a digital equivalent. I say, “baloney.” It's coming. The sooner publishing executives get their collective heads out of the sand and face the future, the better prepared they will be to meet it.

I am convinced that we are only one device away from a digital publishing tsunami. Consider what happened when Apple launched the iPod in October of 2001. They provided an end-to-end solution that made downloading music easy, portable, and fun. Now, 30-plus million iPods later, iPods are everywhere.

Apple owns 84% of the legal download market. They have sold more than 600 million songs to-date. In fact, with over 10 million customers, Apple's iTunes music store now sells more music than Tower Records or Borders. Who could have envisioned this five years ago?

Yes, I know that digital downloads represent less than 5% of all all music purchases. But “the genie is out of the bottle.” Subscription-based music services like Rhapsody, satellite radio, ring tunes, and other mobile technologies have continued to erode the market share of the traditional record industry giants. The fact is, they didn’t see it coming, and they hung onto their “old media” business model for too long. As a result, they have continued to see their revenues—and stock prices—decline each of the last four years.

I don’t want this to happen to the book publishing industry. However, in my opinion, it is inevitable if we don’t try to peer into the future and speculate on what may be coming. As Yogi Berra said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Unfortunately, the alternative is to assume that nothing will change and books as we know them will be around forever. In my opinion, this is a very risky assumption.

So if, as I stated earlier, we are only one device away from a digital revolution in book publishing, what might such a device might look like? Here’s what I envision:

• It looks similar to a tablet PC slate. No keyboard, no monitor, and it folds in half.
• It is the same size and thickness as a hardcover book, say 6" by 9" by 1/2". Unfolded, it is 12" x 9" by 1/4". It feels great in your lap. It can even be bent slightly like a book, so you can curl up on the sofa and read away.
• It uses a tablet PC interface with a built-in stylus that feels like a high-end pen. You can use it to make menu selections, enter text (via handwriting recognition), or highlight passages in books.
• It weighs less than a 256-page hardcover book (about one pound). It therefore dramatically changes the shape and heft of your computer bag.
• It has a battery life of 12–18 hours.
• It completely replaces your computer and runs all your favorite applications.
• It has 256 gigabytes of flash drive storage. It has room for tens of thousands of songs, photos, movies—and books. Because it has no moving parts (unlike a hard drive), it is faster and more reliable.
• It is wi-fi enabled (of course).
• It includes a software application similar to iTunes for the purchase and download of books. Heck, maybe it's just a modification of iTunes.
• It has a simple, elegant book reading application, similar to Microsoft’s Reader.
• It has a docking station that allows you to use a keyboard, mouse, external monitor, etc.
• It runs an Apple operating system. (Okay, I couldn't resist.)

Think this is impossible? Consider the fact that NEC just announced a paper-thin, foldable battery that can be recharged in 30 seconds. Earlier this year, Phillips demonstrated a paper-thin display that can be rolled, folded, and squeezed into a pocket. Apple put sixteen 2-gigabyte flash memory chips in each iPod Nano—its latest iPod offering. However, Samsung, the producer of these chips, has now introduced a flash memory chip that holds 16 gigabytes. Stack sixteen of these units together and you have a whopping 256 gigabytes of storage.

But don’t get hung up on the particulars. I’m not a hardware engineer, and I’m sure the details could be picked apart. I’m simply trying to provide a vision for what could happen. The point I’m trying to make is that some type of device is coming. It may be five years away or it could be next year. For all I know, it is in development now. Regardless, when it arrives, the publishing world as you and I know it will change dramatically.

Maybe it won’t be the death of traditional book publishing, but it will mean a significant shift, perhaps a seismic shift. If we as book publishers are going to stay in the game and avoid the fate of the music industry, we are going to have to embrace the future now and start preparing for it.

Technorati Tags: apple, books, ebooks, ipod, publishing

iTunes 5.0: A Fix ... Sort Of

Apple just updated their Knowledge Base in response to the problems many users were experiencing with iTunes 5.0. They have posted (or updated) two articles:

• iPod does not appear in iPod Updater or iTunes in Mac OS X
• iPod doesn’t appear in iTunes or on the Mac desktop (if you are using Windows, they have posted a separate article)

I reported on my problems over the weekend. However, I was able to fix the problem using a variation of the fix outlined in the first article. I am hoping that Apple issues iTunes 5.1 quickly. I don’t think most users will have the patience or the expertise to go through these steps.

Technorati Tags: Apple, iPod, iTunes

iTunes 5.0: Not Quite Ready for Prime Time

This past week, Apple released iTunes 5.0. It boasts a streamlined look, the ability find stuff faster with the new search bar, and compatibility with the cool new iPod nano and the Motorola ROKR E1 cell phone.

Despite the hype from Apple, I strongly urge you not to upgrade to this new version. Wait for iTunes 5.1. This version of iTunes is slick, and the new search bar is way cool. But—and this is a BIG but—it has compatibility problems with standard iPods.

Technorati Tags: iPod, Apple, iTunes

I installed the upgrade on Thursday evening. When I connected my iPod, I got a message that iTunes could not transfer my purchased music to the iPod. It claimed that my iPod software was out of date, and I needed to update it, too. No problem, I thought. I then downloaded the latest iPod Software Updater, dated 2005-09-06.

First, the program did not launch an installer. I assumed this would happen once I downloaded the software. Instead, thanks to the Apple Discussions group (and about 20 minutes of wasted time), I discovered that I had to launch the software manually from my applications\utilities folder. Who knew?

Unfortunately, this didn’t solve the problem. The iPod Software Updater wouldn’t recognize my iPod was connected. I tried rebooting, using a different port—everything I could think of. Nothing worked. I could see the iPod connected in Finder and in iTunes, but the Updater couldn’t see it.

So, I spent another hour or so browsing the Apple Discussions groups. (See Connecting to a Mac.) I was somewhat comforted by the fact that I wasn’t the only one having problems. Scores of users reported similar problems. Several suggested deleting a driver called iPodDriver.kext from the System/Library/Extensions folder and then rebooting the computer. That didn’t work either. (This kind of rigamarole kind of reminded me of my old Windows days!)

I have two words for Apple: “more testing.” Clearly, this version of iTunes was rushed to market, probably to support the new iPod nano and the new Motorola cell phone. Evidently, the hardware guys got ahead of the software guys. This is not what I have come to expect from Apple!

My advice: unless you have bought one of these new pieces of hardware, don't upgrade. Wait for Apple to acknowledge the problem and fix it. In the meantime, I'm going to see if I can find a copy of iTunes 4.9 and downgrade to it. (If you know where I can download this older version, please let me know in the comments section below.)

Update: The PC Doctor has found sites where you can download a copy of iTunes 4.9, both Windows and Mac versions. However, do it quickly. These copies are being rapidly replaced by 5.0.