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Could This Be the iPod for Books?

The future may have arrived sooner than even I expected. According to BusinessWeek, Sony is set to introduce a new portable e-reader device at this week’s Consumer Electronic Show in Las Vegas that they hope will be to reading what the iPod is to music. Supposedly, they are proposing a complete, end-to-end solution, including a hand-held device and a software application similar to iTunes that provides downloading and syncing.

Sony has lined up major publishers to participate in the launch, including Simon & Schuster, Random House, and HarperCollins. Jane Friedman, CEO of HarperCollins, says she plans to digitize her entire catalog and make it available through Sony’s online store. This will happen as soon as HarperCollins finishes negotiating royalty rates with authors.

The thing that caught my eye in the BusinessWeek article was the description of the display:

According to sources who have seen the device, it is similar in many ways to the Japanese Librie. Both devices use E Ink, a display technology developed by E Ink Corp. in Cambridge, Mass.

E Ink forms text by electronically arranging thousands of tiny black and white capsules, creating an experience remarkably similar to reading a printed page. Unlike the liquid-crystal display screens used in personal digital assistants, there is no backlight to strain readers’ eyes, and characters show up sharp and clear, even in full sunlight. And since the gadget requires power only to “turn” pages, users should be able to read more than 15 books between charges.

Even if this doesn’t become the device that I predicted in my first post on this topic, this is definitely a story to watch. I think we are seeing the convergence of multiple interests that will eventually result in the right device.

Again, traditional books will not disappear any time soon, but a shift is coming. Count on it—and get ready.

Technorati Tags: books, ebooks, future, publishing, reading, technology

The Shift Toward Digital Continues

Still not convinced that the world is going digital? Today, USA Today ran a story about U.S. music album sales. Get this: 2005 album sales were down 7% from the previous year while digital downloads of music doubled!

The article goes on to note that this isn’t particularly bad news for recording companies, but “it doesn’t bode well for music retailers.” Why? Because digital downloads bypass them entirely.

As I pointed out in my first and second posts on the future of digital book publishing, I believe that the music industry, while different, is a harbinger of things to come in the book industry. Before you post a comment that “digital books will never replace traditional books, blah, blah, blah,” keep in mind that that’s not my argument. I am simply arguing that a shift will occur once the right device appears. Like it or not, digital books will take a slice of the pie.

If 5–10% of book sales go digital, it will have a significant impact on the industry. There will be winners and losers. The winners will be those companies who see digital books coming and prepare accordingly. The losers will be those who stick their head in the sand and refuse to acknowledge that the world is changing.

I didn’t spend any time in my previous posts about the impact on book retailers, but that is clearly something that needs to be addressed. Music retailers are already feeling the impact of digital music downloads. Book retailers are in a good position to begin thinking about this issue before the tsunami hits them.

Technorati Tags: books, ebooks, future, publishing, technology

iRex Announces an ePaper Device

iRex has announced an ePaper device that moves us one step closer to the device I envisioned in my first and second posts on digital publishing.

In my opinion, this is still a long way from “the tipping point.” However, this is the third such device I have seen in the last two weeks. I think this reflects an acceleration in this kind of hardware development. It will likely take several more attempts, but eventually someone will get it right. It’s only a matter of time.

Technorati Tags: books, ebooks, future, publishing, technology

More Thoughts on the Future of Book Publishing

By the comments I have received to my last post, I think it might be helpful to clarify a few items.

First, despite my attention-grabbing title, I do not actually anticipate the death of traditional book publishing—at least not anytime soon. However, even a 5-10 percent reduction in sales would have a significant negative impact on the publishing industry as we know it today.

Remember, legally downloaded music sales are only 6% of the total music industry, yet the record companies are reeling. But, it’s only going to get worse for those who refuse to embrace the future. Consider the fact that total music sales (physical and downloaded) for the first half of 2005 were $13.2 billion. Legal downloads accounted for $790 million or nearly 6 percent of this total. However, download sales increased by 350% over the prior year. This is the really big news. Do you see where this trend is going?

Yes, traditional books will be available to bibliophiles for the foreseeable future. All I am arguing is that a shift will occur. A big enough slice of the book reading public will opt for digital delivery and that will have a significant, disruptive effect on the entire industry. Trust me, it won’t take much. This is not an industry awash in profits. A 5-10 percent reduction in sales would wreak havoc. It’s already happening with newspapers and magazines. On the other hand, publishing companies that anticipate this shift and prepare accordingly will prosper. But this must happen now, not after the shift occurs. By then, it will be too late.

Second, I don’t think it’s valid to argue that the current technology doesn’t replicate the user-interface of a traditional book. This is obvious—and irrelevant. Technology is changing exponentially. We are not that far away from displays that closely resemble paper and are more readable and easy on the eyes than paper. We can’t try to envision the future by merely extrapolating from the present. We have to think “outside the box.”

Similarly, we can’t afford to make the mistake of assuming that what is familiar to us will be familiar to our children and grandchildren. Yes, I too love books. I have rooms full of them. (That’s one of the reasons I got into the book business!) But my daughters are more comfortable with computers. Just walk into a room full of teenagers and watch what they are doing. You won’t find many reading books (to my dismay). They are more comfortable with computers and other electronic devices. That’s really all they have known.

In addition, the technology does not have to be better than the traditional book. The quality of MP3 files is not as good as the quality of CD tracks. Yet, customers are switching in unprecedented numbers. Why? Because MP3 (or AAC) is good enough. In addition, iPods offer something intangible. It is something that delights consumers and makes them feel hip and powerful. The thought of having 10,000 songs at your fingertips in a device that can fit in your pocket is intoxicating—at least to millions of people. All I am arguing is that a similar device will come along that makes books as readily accessible—and as fun—as an iPod does for music. It will be cool beyond what we can imagine today. It will be simple and elegant, and, like iTunes and iPod, provide a seamless, end-to-end solution that doesn’t exist in today’s eBook world.

Third, Amazon.com has proven that millions of consumers are willing to buy books online without the benefit of browsing through a physical copy in a retail store. No, this doesn’t mean that retail bookstores will go away. But they will have to prepare to compete with a new kind of online store (think iTunes) that will give them a run for their money. Five years ago, no one could have imagined a new startup competitor who could sell more music than either Tower Records or Borders. Yet, it happened. Seemingly, out of the blue. And it is growing beyond what anyone, perhaps even Apple, could have imagined.

Finally, I want to thank everyone who commented on my last post. I may well be wrong in the particulars of my vision about the future. All I am hoping to do is stimulate discussion and get us thinking about a change I believe is inevitable.

Technorati Tags: books, ebooks, future, publishing, reading, technology

The Death of Traditional Book Publishing

In 2000 or so, Microsoft launched Reader, a simple software application designed to enable users to read books on their computers. Most of us in the book publishing world braced for what we thought would be a major shift in our industry. It didn’t happen.

In recent years, it has become fashionable to defend the traditional book. Many have argued that you would be hard-pressed to improve on the user-interface and ergonomics of a book. Jokingly, I have said, “You just can’t beat the battery life of the traditional book!”

While most publishers will admit that reference content is better accessed on the computer, almost all believe that the traditional non-fiction book or novel will never be replaced with a digital equivalent. I say, “baloney.” It's coming. The sooner publishing executives get their collective heads out of the sand and face the future, the better prepared they will be to meet it.

I am convinced that we are only one device away from a digital publishing tsunami. Consider what happened when Apple launched the iPod in October of 2001. They provided an end-to-end solution that made downloading music easy, portable, and fun. Now, 30-plus million iPods later, iPods are everywhere.

Apple owns 84% of the legal download market. They have sold more than 600 million songs to-date. In fact, with over 10 million customers, Apple's iTunes music store now sells more music than Tower Records or Borders. Who could have envisioned this five years ago?

Yes, I know that digital downloads represent less than 5% of all all music purchases. But “the genie is out of the bottle.” Subscription-based music services like Rhapsody, satellite radio, ring tunes, and other mobile technologies have continued to erode the market share of the traditional record industry giants. The fact is, they didn’t see it coming, and they hung onto their “old media” business model for too long. As a result, they have continued to see their revenues—and stock prices—decline each of the last four years.

I don’t want this to happen to the book publishing industry. However, in my opinion, it is inevitable if we don’t try to peer into the future and speculate on what may be coming. As Yogi Berra said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Unfortunately, the alternative is to assume that nothing will change and books as we know them will be around forever. In my opinion, this is a very risky assumption.

So if, as I stated earlier, we are only one device away from a digital revolution in book publishing, what might such a device might look like? Here’s what I envision:

• It looks similar to a tablet PC slate. No keyboard, no monitor, and it folds in half.
• It is the same size and thickness as a hardcover book, say 6" by 9" by 1/2". Unfolded, it is 12" x 9" by 1/4". It feels great in your lap. It can even be bent slightly like a book, so you can curl up on the sofa and read away.
• It uses a tablet PC interface with a built-in stylus that feels like a high-end pen. You can use it to make menu selections, enter text (via handwriting recognition), or highlight passages in books.
• It weighs less than a 256-page hardcover book (about one pound). It therefore dramatically changes the shape and heft of your computer bag.
• It has a battery life of 12–18 hours.
• It completely replaces your computer and runs all your favorite applications.
• It has 256 gigabytes of flash drive storage. It has room for tens of thousands of songs, photos, movies—and books. Because it has no moving parts (unlike a hard drive), it is faster and more reliable.
• It is wi-fi enabled (of course).
• It includes a software application similar to iTunes for the purchase and download of books. Heck, maybe it's just a modification of iTunes.
• It has a simple, elegant book reading application, similar to Microsoft’s Reader.
• It has a docking station that allows you to use a keyboard, mouse, external monitor, etc.
• It runs an Apple operating system. (Okay, I couldn't resist.)

Think this is impossible? Consider the fact that NEC just announced a paper-thin, foldable battery that can be recharged in 30 seconds. Earlier this year, Phillips demonstrated a paper-thin display that can be rolled, folded, and squeezed into a pocket. Apple put sixteen 2-gigabyte flash memory chips in each iPod Nano—its latest iPod offering. However, Samsung, the producer of these chips, has now introduced a flash memory chip that holds 16 gigabytes. Stack sixteen of these units together and you have a whopping 256 gigabytes of storage.

But don’t get hung up on the particulars. I’m not a hardware engineer, and I’m sure the details could be picked apart. I’m simply trying to provide a vision for what could happen. The point I’m trying to make is that some type of device is coming. It may be five years away or it could be next year. For all I know, it is in development now. Regardless, when it arrives, the publishing world as you and I know it will change dramatically.

Maybe it won’t be the death of traditional book publishing, but it will mean a significant shift, perhaps a seismic shift. If we as book publishers are going to stay in the game and avoid the fate of the music industry, we are going to have to embrace the future now and start preparing for it.

Technorati Tags: apple, books, ebooks, ipod, publishing

My Daily Reading List

I read a lot. Books, magazines, blogs, and especially the Web versions of newspapers.

I am often asked what is on my daily reading list. In addition to the Bible, here's my daily list of reading.

• 43 Folders
• The Unofficial Apple Weblog
• Marc's Outlook on Productivity
• C\Net News.com
• CNN.com
• DrudgeReport.com
• GoogleNews.com
• NewYorkTimes.com
• OfficeZealot.com
• Tennessean.com
• The Wall Street Journal Online
• USAToday.com

I do my reading in the morning before I shower or get dressed. I'm a morning person, so it's first on my list, along with a giant cup of Starbucks coffee.

I force myself to read fast. I spend no more than an hour reading through my list. (This doesn't include books, which I read at other times.) I save articles I may want to reference in the future in a “Research” folder.

By the way, these are all stored in a Safari Bookmarks Bar in a subfolder called “!Daily”. The exclamation sign insures that it sorts first in the list. When I am ready to plow through my daily reading, I click on the list and select “Open in Tabs.” Each URL is then opened in a Safari tab. You can do a similar thing in Firefox (available in Mac or Windows flavors) or even Maxthon for you Windows diehards.

Technorati Tags: daily, reading, workflow